The Coronavirus and skeptics

I have now seen several posts commenting on how car crashes kill more than the Coronavirus has, or how this or that kills more people than the Coronavirus has. The post then goes on to make fun of the concerns about the virus. Moreover, the media is blamed for spreading exaggerated information.

Those posts show total ignorance of epidemiological history. The Spanish flu pandemic killed 50 million people at the beginning of the 20th century. The black plague in the 14th century was estimated to have killed up to 150 million people and to have reduced the population of Europe from 30% to 60%.

We do not know which viruses will reach those levels of destructive power. Worse, viruses are not treatable with antibiotics. One simply has to ride them out. It is true that today we know that virus victims should be kept hydrated, etc. However, even our modern methods cannot guarantee survival. Thus, every time that a virus infection breaks out, the WHO (World Health Organization) has to take seriously the possibility that this will be one of those once-in-a-couple-of-centuries viruses.

Not surprisingly, the same people who now make fun of the death rate from the Coronavirus will be the same people who will blow up on social media and insist that the health authorities should have done more. Those who are currently making fun of the epidemiological concerns will be the first to lambast any possible evidence of failed efforts. One only needs to look at the articles concerning China’s response to see how these same false experts have quickly claimed cover-up on China’s initial response.

China’s initial response was actually identical to the critiques of the false experts. The response was to reassure the citizens that Coronavirus was not a serious danger. Even in China, the number of deaths from traffic accidents is higher than the number of deaths that they have experienced from Coronavirus. Yet, the false experts are currently lambasting China while turning around and claiming that the USA and the WHO are overstating the danger of Coronavirus.

Another way to phrase it is that the false experts were going to write negative posts and articles regardless of the accuracy of their reports. If there were a limited number of cases, then they were going to accuse authorities of overreactions. If there were a true pandemic, then they were going to accuse the authorities of inadequate reactions. There was no way that the authorities can receive a positive review from our false experts.

This brings up a final point. Remember that false experts make their names by pointing out inadequacies. They do not make their names by pointing out that all was done correctly. When you read a critique, make sure to read it carefully and to analyze it. You may find out that the critique would have taken place regardless of the outcome.